After talking with the Crowdcast team, I went and retrieved my right-timing file. Some of the features I was interested in would be nearly impossible to implement. Others are already baked in Crowdcast’s prediction market. Here’s a closer look.
If you review the example involving Shai Agassi’s Better Place, my thought was to have at least two separate prediction markets that would be linked together. These include bets on the level of funding that Better Place would need to raise and the date for the opening of the first battery replacement service station
Why stop there? As I sat next to the bed that night I considered some of the other related issues: How much would the batteries cost? How much would consumers be willing to pay? How long would they be willing to wait as the batteries got swapped out? What would happen if oil dropped to $20 a barrel? Should Better Place target commuters or government vehicles?
At the same time, it seemed fair to ask whether other technologies such as hydrogen might be ready before Better Place was able to build out the infrastructure or whether Toyota or another car manufacturer could design/deploy better battery technology. All of them seemed to merit wagers, too.
As I saw it, bettors could segue between these markets. They would be aided by RSS links to relevant news stories. This is a feature offered by Crowdcast. Participants could also offer comments on a discussion board with expert postings differentiated from others. This is also offered by Crowdcast.
As the related markets changed in importance (e.g., hydrogen was viewed as not being viable for another decade), the effected markets would change colors. Cold discussions would turn deep blue, while the hotter markets would turn red.
After unsuccessfully testing the right-timing idea internally, I did approach at least three software companies to see if they had an interest in talking more about the concept. I was hoping to end up having something that we could use for our research and post on our website. Nothing happened.
As I reviewed my notes today, I still like the concept. After talking to the Crowdcast team, though, I realize that these bets need to be more bounded to be effective. The linkage of related markets may have proven to be too much of a stretch.
What do you think of the idea?
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